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Up in the air Save or dump? Interpreting the yield curve Decision time


Dear Clients and Friends:


As our firm continues to grow we are pleased to welcome the many new clients who have come to trust our advice and appreciate the care and attention they receive, especially during these challenging and extraordinary times.

Earlier this year we were excited to learn that we had been named by 401(k) Wire as one of the nation's top 300 firms whose expertise has shined in the defined benefit and defined contribution markets (i.e. 401(k) plans). It is a testament to our team and their hard work creating relevant and timely tools that our plan sponsors and their employees have eagerly embraced, including:

  1. Fiduciary Toolkit
  2. Electronic Vaulting
  3. Employee advice verses plain education
  4. Tactical management of investments versus statically managed portfolios
  5. Complete transparency

This is one of the many reasons that I am proud of our team, who is really YOUR TEAM. After spending time individually with each of our people, I am pleased to say that all are excited about the work they do and the important role they play in taking care of you. We know we can only be as good as the professional staff who decides to make PFS their home. That is why we will do all that we can to enable everyone at PFS to not only fulfill their career goals, but to genuinely enjoy what they do along the way. We feel fortunate that you, our clients, make it possible for all of us to find that level of fulfillment as we serve your financial needs.

We are excited to announce the addition of Cristen Komperda and Peter Fitch to our team at PFS. Cristen will assume Client Development responsibilities to ensure continued high quality service as we grow. This will also allow me to spend more quality time with our clients. Cristen brings over 11 years of experience implementing non–profit and charitable administration solutions to high, net worth individuals, non–profit organizations, and financial institutions. At her previous employer, she directed the firm's overall marketing and strategic planning programs, as well as corporate communications to help facilitate client development through marketing and client services programs.

Peter joined us as a summer intern from Ohio Northern University. He is studying business management with an emphasis on corporate communications. He will be assisting us with projects throughout the office to further maximize efficiencies.

Our commitment to our clients and prospective clients is that you will see a clear line in the sand where our commitment to providing entrepreneurs, leaders in business, and families an experience that is customized around you...Your life. Your money. Your waySM.

Market Update

After rising almost 9% in the first 66 days of 2010, the market abruptly changed direction on April 24, 2010. The reasons for pullbacks are never singularly focused, but are instead a combination of things. In this case, it was the market priced for perfection running into the emerging fiscal concerns of several European countries, which was enough to reverse the market's sentiment and thus its direction.

It is important to note that the problem in Europe, which has primarily centered on Greece—as well as Spain, Italy, and Hungary—is not the first casualty to arise; it is just the latest fallout from the 2008–2009 recession. The fact is there have been many victims of the aftershocks of the severe recession we have just exited. These include the nearly 8 million workers who lost their jobs, hundreds of thousands of homeowners who lost their residences, and the too–many–to–count number of small businesses that had to close up shop. Now, we can add troubled countries, like Greece and others, to the list of casualties caused by the most severe recession since the Great Depression. The market's concern is that these many aftershocks of the Great Recession have created a wave that will spread through the global economy and send the world back into a double–dip recessionary episode.

While this could happen, in theory, the market is likely giving too much credibility to a serial–defaulting nation like Greece to derail global growth. For whatever reason, the market is concerned about a country the geographic size of Alabama with an economic size smaller than that of the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan region. While not insignificant by any measure, one wonders how a country the economic size of Dallas could actually derail the world's global economy.

However, even if the economic impact of Europe's issues become more widespread, the fact remains that the market's assumption that the world is held hostage by the emerging difficulties in parts of Europe is misplaced. While there has been much focus on the negative effects of the crisis in Greece and other European nations, which are real concerns and real negative headwinds for the global economy, what the markets have not factored in is that positive events have also sprouted as a result of these issues.

One of the many positive side effects stemming from the struggles in Europe is that production inputs, like commodities and raw materials, are pricing in a huge global slowdown, which has sent oil and copper prices down significantly. So, while the market is worried that Greece will slow down global growth, shouldn't it be optimistic that manufacturing companies in the U.S., China, and around the world may now be more profitable since they can make products at 13–20% less costs than they could just 30 to 60 days ago?*

But the "benefits" of the problems in Greece do not just apply to manufacturing; they also help us consumers. As the fears over the problems in Europe have intensified, investors have flocked to the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The demand for these bonds has driven up prices and thus sent their yields plummeting to the current 3.2% levels (as of June 17, 2010, measured by the Barclays 10–Year Treasury Index). This means that mortgage rates for home buyers and refinancers have also moved lower given their near lockstep movements with Treasury yields. In fact, the 30–year fixed mortgage rates have declined from 5.26% before the problems in Greece to as low as 4.84% as of June 11.^

But the biggest "benefit" of the problems emerging from the European fiscal crisis is that global inflation has been temporarily taken out of the picture. This has allowed global central banks in economic powerhouse countries like the U.S., China, and Brazil, which were briefly slowing down global growth by shifting from accommodative to restrictive monetary policies, to once again have a reprieve from inflationary concerns and place their foot back on the economic growth accelerator. The bottom line is that the market is focusing solely on the worst case scenario the impact of Greece (and other European countries) will have on the prospects for global growth. The problem is that this is only part of the equation and frankly, the smallest part. While a European slowdown has its impacts, I feel confident the market would accept problems in Greece in exchange for more accommodative global central banks any day of the week. From this point of view, perhaps we shouldn't be worried about what is happening in Greece, we should view it as a positive.

As a result, I believe that now is the time to consider adding attractive investment opportunities. This pullback has been overdone, valuations are now set at attractive levels, and fundamentals of the market continue to trend towards the transition to sustainable growth. But do not expect a straight up rally from here. This market remains in an improving but fragile state. While I expect an upward trending market, volatility will likely remain very elevated. But the good news is that fear creates investment opportunities and there is an abundance of fear out there. As always, if you have questions, I encourage you to contact me.

Update on 2010 Initiatives

  1. Our focus this year has been and will continue to be on helping our clients to better define their Return on LifeTM. This ensures that your unique voice is heard and your vision reflected in every decision. It helps to shape your unique Return on LifeTM, an individually–defined measure of success that goes well beyond investment performance.
  2. We introduced electronic vaulting of critical information for defined benefit and defined contribution plans (i.e. 401(k) plans)
  3. We expanded our firm's capacity to provide the unparalleled level of service our clients expect. Patty will be migrating this summer to a position as a full time financial advisor working closely with Jeremy on our 401(K) Plus platform.
  4. Finally, enhancements to Wealth PlanSM were completed on time. Wealth PlanSM is a comprehensive tool used to aggregate financial information, store critical documents and provide interactive and customized feedback, allowing you to make confident and informed decisions so your wealth works the way you choose. I invite you to visit our website at PlannedFinancial.com to learn more about Wealth PlanSM and view our online demo.

We remain committed to keeping you informed on financial market activity and firm news so you can make better decisions as they relate to your family and your business. As always, please call Jeremy, Walt, Patty or me with any questions or concerns. We value your input but most importantly, we value our relationship as your wealth advisor. If you know of someone who can benefit from our services or a second opinion, please let us know.

Thank you for your trust and confidence. We work hard to earn it every day.

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Respectfully,


Frank Fantozzi, CPA, MT, PFS, CDFA, AIF

President, Planned Financial Services



Planned Financial Services
www.plannedfinancial.com
7000 Fitzwater Road,
Suite 300
Cleveland, Ohio 44141
440.740.0130 ph
440.740.0339 fx